| Name: James Brian Elsner | Current: Associate Professor |
· Kara, A. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer for coastal and inland locations around the Gulf of Mexico, Atmosfera, 12, 1-13.
· Elsner, J. B., X. Niu, & A. A. Tsonis, 1998: Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 68, 43-51.
· Kara, A. B., P. H. Ruscher, & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Numerical models of boundary layer processes over and around the Gulf of Mexico during a return-flow event, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 921-933.
· Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X. Niu, & J. J. O'Brien, 1998: Effect of El Niño on U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 2477-2482.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Comments on ``The southern oscillation as an example of a simple, ordered subsystem of a complex chaotic system," Journal of Climate, 11, 2453-2454, 2460.
· Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B. Elsner, 1998: A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2821-2823.
· Kimberlain, T. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the tropical-only hurricane, Journal of Climate, 11, 2062-2069.
· Kara, A. B., J. B. Elsner, & P. H. Ruscher, 1998: Physical mechanism for the Tallahassee, Florida minimum temperature anomaly, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 37, 101-113.
· Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Do climate simulations from sea surface temperature forced models represent actual dynamics? Nonlinear Process in Geophysics, 4, 93-100.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. B. Kara, 1997: Hurricane return periods along the Gulf Coast and Florida, NOAA Tech. Memo., NWS SR-192.
· Carter, M. M., & J. B. Elsner, 1997: A statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico, Weather and Forecasting, 12, 515-525.
· Lehmiller, G. S., T. B. Kimberlain, & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location, Monthly Weather Review, 125, 1780-1791.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability, Physica D, 108, 191-196.
· Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1997: Is DNA a language? Journal of Theoretical Biology, 184, 25-29.
· Carter, M. M., and J. B. Elsner, 1996: Convective rainfall regions of Puerto Rico, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1033-1043.
· Elsner, J. B., G. S. Lehmiller, & T. B. Kimberlain, 1996: Objective classification of Atlantic basin hurricanes, Journal of Climate, 9, 2880-2889.
· Elsner, J. B., H. E. Fuelberg, R. L. Deal III, J. A. Orrock, G. S. Lehmiller, & P. H. Ruscher, 1996: Tallahassee, Florida, minimum temperature anomaly: Description and speculations, Bulletin of the American Meteterological Society, 77, 721-728.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1996: Mapping the channels of communication between the tropics and midlatitudes, Physica D, 92, 237-244.
· Tsonis, A. A., P. Kumar, J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1996: Wavelet analysis of DNA sequences, Physical Review E, 53, 1828-1834.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1995: Testing for scaling in natural forms and observables, Journal of Statistical Physics, 81, 869-880.
· Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, A. Lascaratos, C. Koutitas, & A. A. Tsonis, 1995: Structure and properties of the attractor of a marine dynamical system, Mathematical and Computational Modelling, 21, 73-86.
· Hess, J. C., J. B. Elsner, & N. E. LaSeur, 1995: Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin, Weather and Forecasting, 10, 425-432.
· Elsner, J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1994: Assessing forecast skill through cross validation, Weather and Forecasting, 9, 619-624.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994: Low-frequency oscillation, Nature, 372, 507-508.
· Tsonis, A. A., G. N. Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, J. J. Holdzkom II, & A. D. Kirwan Jr., 1994: An investigation on the ability of nonlinear methods to infer dynamics from observations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1623-1633.
· Elsner, J. B., & J. C. Honor'e, 1994: Ignoring chaos, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1846-1847.
· Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Extended-range hindcasts of tropical-origin Atlantic hurricane activity, Geophysical Research Letters, 21, 365-368.
· Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Historical developments leading to forecasts of annual Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1611-1621.
· Tsonis, A. A., G. Triantafyllou, & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Searching for determinism in observed data: A review of the issues involved, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 12-25.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994: Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 41-44.
· Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1993: On the existence of scaling in DNA sequences, Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications, 97, 1288-1295.
· Elsner, J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity, Weather and Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
· Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & K. P. Georgakakos, 1993: Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors: Important issues about the procedure and interpretation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 2549-2555.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993: Nonlinear dynamics established in the ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 213-216.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993: Complexity and predictability of hourly precipitation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 400-405.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: ``What do data analyses tell us about the variability of global temperature?" Chapter 3, Section I, A Global Warming Forum: Scientific, Economic, and Legal Overview, R. A. Geyer, Editor, CRC Press.
· Elsner, J. B., 1992: A description of low-frequency atmospheric oscillations over the Northern Hemisphere using singular spectrum analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 1775-1778.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing chaos from random fractal sequences, Nature, 358, 217-220.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: Temperature oscillations, Nature, 356, 751.
· Elsner, J. B., 1992: Predicting time series using a neural network as a method for distinguishing chaos from noise, Journal of Physics A, 25, 843-850.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992: A note on the spatial structure of the covariability of Northern Hemispheric monthly temperature records in the last 110 years, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 137, 133-146.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992: Nonlinear prediction, chaos and noise, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73, 49-60.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991: Fractal properties of rain in the time domain and Taylor's hypothesis, Meteorology and Hydrology, 2, 98-103.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991: Do bidecadal oscillations exist in the global temperature record? Nature, 353, 551-553.
· Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1991: Periodicity in DNA coding sequences: Implications in gene evolution, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 151, 323-331.
· Elsner, J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991: Comparisons of observed Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature records, Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 1229-1232.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991: Multiple fractal dimensions in snow, Atmospheric Research, 26, 1-5.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990: Multiple attractors, fractal basins and longterm climate dynamics, Atmospheric Physics, 63, 171-176.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990: Comments on ``Dimension Analysis of Climatic Data," Journal of Climate, 3, 1502-1505.
· Elsner, J. B., W. H. Drag, & J. K. Last, 1989: Synoptic weather patterns associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin flash flood of 6 August 1986, Weather and Forecasting, 4, 537-554.
· Elsner, J. B., J. R. Mecikalski, & A. A. Tsonis, 1989: A shore-parallel cloud band over Lake Michigan, Monthly Weather Review, 117, 2822-2823.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989: Testing the global warming hypothesis, Geophysical Research Letters, 16, 795-797.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989: Chaos, strange attractors and the weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 70, 16-23.
· Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1989: On the dynamics of a forced reaction-diffusion model for biological pattern formation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 86, 4938-4942.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1988: The weather attractor over very short-time scales, Nature, 333, 545-547.
· Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1987: Fractal characterization and simulation of lightning, Atmospheric Physics, 60, 187-192.
· Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987: Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in Northeast Brazil, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 113, 567-580.
· Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987:
Intra-seasonal variability of rainfall and atmospheric energetics over
Northeast Brazil during the rainy season of 1979, Tellus A, 39, 49-60.
· Hurricanes of the North Atlantic:
Climate and Society, J. B. Elsner and A. B. Kara, Oxford University Press,
1999. 496 pp.
· Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool
in Time Series Analysis, J. B. Elsner and A. A. Tsonis, Plenum, 1996, 164
pp.
· Chaos and Determinism: Turbulence
as a Paradigm for Complex Systems Converging Toward Final States, by A.
Favre, H. Guitton, J. Guitton, A. Lichnerowicz, & E. Wolff, translated
by B. E. Schwarzbach, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
76, 1824—1825 (1995).
· The Essence of Chaos, by E. N. Lorenz, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 862-864 (1994).
· Non-Linear Variability in Geophysics: Scaling and Fractals, edited by S. Lovejoy & D. Schertzer, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73, 645-646 (1992).
· From Cardinals to Chaos: Reflections
on the Life and Legacy of S. Ulam, edited by N. G. Cooper, Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society, 72, 1554-1556 (1991).
· Elsner, J. B., 1998: Verification
of our forecasts for the 1998 North Atlantic hurricane season and predictions
for the 1999 season, Experminental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 7/4.
· Elsner, J. B., T. B. Kimberlain, and G. S. Lehmiller, 1998: Early August forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity for the balance of the 1998 season, using Poisson, logistic, and OLS models, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 7/3.
· Elsner, J. B., and T. B. Kimberlain, 1997: Verfication of our forecasts for the 1997 North Atlantic hurricane season and predictions for the 1998 season, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 6/4.
· Elsner, J. B., T. B. Kimberlain, and G. S. Lehmiller, 1997: Early August forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity for the balance of the 1997 season, using Poisson, logistic, and OLS models, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 6/3.
· Elsner, J. B., G. S. Lehmiller, and T. B. Kimberlain, 1996: Forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1997, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 5/4.
· Elsner, J. B., G. S. Lehmiller, and T. B. Kimberlain, 1996: Early August Atlantic hurricane activity forecasts for the balance of the 1996 season, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 5/3.
· Elsner, J. B., 1996: A probabilistic model of the number of intense Atlantic hurricanes for 1996, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 5/1.
· Elsner, J. B. & C. P. Schmertmann, 1995: Multiple least-squares regression and Poisson model forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1996, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 4/4.
· Elsner, J. B., T. B. Kimberlain, & C. P. Schmertmann, 1994: Poisson model forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity for 1995, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 3/4.
· Elsner, J. B., C. P. Schmertmann, & J. C. Hess, 1993: Long-lead forecasts of annual Atlantic hurricane activity for 1994 and a verification of the 1993 forecast, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 2/4.
· Elsner, J. B. & C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: A long-lead seasonl forecast of intense Atlantic hurricane activity for 1993, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, 2/1.
· CITM (NOAA) $34,000, October 1998 - September 1999.
· COMET (NCAR) $57,688, January 1998 - December 1999.
· Risk Prediction Initiative, $50,000, November 1997 - May 1999.
· National Science Foundation, $156,000, May 1997 - April 2000.
· Risk Prediction Initiative, $35,000, June 1996 - May 1997.
· FSU Council on Research and Creativity, $6,000, November 1995 - October 1996.
· National Science Foundation, $110,000, February 1995 - September 1997.
· National Science Foundation, $99,000, December 1993 - November 1996.
· CITM (NOAA) $17,000/yr, October 1993 - September 1997.
· FSU Committee on Faculty Research Support, $8,000, May 1993 - August 1993.
· CITM (NOAA) $45,000, September 1991 - August 1992.
· FSU Council on Research and Creativity, $10,500, November 1990 - October 1991.
· FSU President's Travel Fund, $600/yr, 1990-91, 1991-92, 1992-93, 1994-95.
· European Geophysical Society XXI General Assembly, The Hague, Netherlands, 6-10 May, 1996, Quantifying Predictability, with M.K. Davey, M. Allen, and T. Opsteegh.
· National Hurricane Conference, Norfolk, VA, April, 1998
· Aon Reinsurance Meeting, Chicago, IL, June, 1997
· Re-insurance industry meeting, Hamilton, Bermuda, December, 1996
· Seminar on Catastrophe Issues, Keynote address, St. Petersburg, April, 1996
· Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Bermuda, September, 1995
· NWSFO, Anchorage, June, 1993
· European Geophysical Society XVIII General Assembly, Wiesbaden, May, 1993
· Clark-Atlanta University, Atlanta, October, 1991
· Bulgarian Institute of Nuclear Physics, Sofia, June, 1991
· Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, June, 1991
· AMS-West Central Illinois Chapter, Peoria, March 1990
· University of Dayton, Dayton, March, 1990
· Milwaukee Area Technical College, Milwaukee,
April, 1988
· Graduate/Undergraduate level: Synoptic Meteorology Lecture/Laboratory, Mesometeorology Laboratory, Computational Methods in Atmospheric Science, Statistical Weather and Climate Prediction, Data Analysis and Statistics in Meteorology, Atmospheric Thermodynamics, Hurricanes: Climate and Society
· Undergraduate level: Survey of Meteorology,
Tornadic Storms, General Meteorology, Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology,
Current Weather Discussion